Faith’s Sub-4:00 — Can She Do It?

**At 4:07.64, Faith Kipyegon has the fastest women’s mile ever. This weekend she’ll attempt to run — seriously — at least 7-plus seconds faster.** (VICTOR SAILER/PHOTO RUN)

FAITH KIPYEGON will attempt to run the mile in under 4 minutes at 11:00am PDT on Thursday 26 June at the Stade Charléty in Paris.

Before you say, “NO WAY”… let’s look at Kipyegon’s background performances, particularly her 1500 victory at the ’23 World Championships in Budapest and her ’25 1000m run.

(Peter Thompson first published this analysis, generously shared with T&FN, on his Facebook page.)

Budapest23 1500 Final

Kipyegon Runs Final 800/400 Splits of 1:59.83/55.75!

In this 1500 Kipyegon ran the final 800 in 1:59.83. Here is a graph with the 100m splits of that championship race. Her finish (with closing 200 splits of 26.91/28.84) was unassailable.

**Faith’s unassailable final 800m and 400m at BUDAPEST23.** (PETER JOHN L. THOMPSON)

’25 Xiamen DL 1000 — 2:29.21

Kipyegon started off this year outdoors at the Xiamen Diamond League meet on April 27, narrowly missing the WR for 1000m with her 2:29.21 — which we know is sub-60 400m pace. (T&FN addendum: After passing 400 behind a rabbit who split 59.38, Kipyegon reached 800 in 1:59.69 and ran her final 200 in 29.92.)

Role Of Bicarb System

If Kipyegon has previously used *sodium bicarbonate I believe she is capable of 4:02/4:03 this week, given the other support and prototype spikes. If she has not used “bicarb” and chooses to in this attempt, then I believe that will carry her to a sub-4 clocking.

*=Sodium bicarbonate is what we commonly call baking soda

In ’18 Swedish sports nutrition and technology company Maurten introduced its first gel product using “natural hydrogel technology” to enhance delivery of carbohydrates through the gut during endurance efforts. The company’s Bicarb System applies that technology to acid-buffering sodium bicarbonate. Many current elite long- and middle distance athletes use or have experimented with it. Its use is permitted under the WADA Code.

Maurten’s explanation of its bicarb system:

“The Maurten Bicarb System does for bicarbonate what Maurten Gel 100 and Drink Mixes did for carbohydrates — use Hydrogel Technology to encapsulate the bicarb and carry it through the stomach to be absorbed.
“Lactate is not the enemy — it’s a fuel source generated during all-out, high-intensity exercise. It’s the increase in acidity during these efforts that overwhelms the muscles and leads to exhaustion.
“Large doses of sodium bicarbonate counteract the negative effects of the rising acidity, but there’s always been a catch — stomach issues that cancel out any performance gains.
“The Bicarb System cracks the code to deliver the smoothest, most effective bicarb experience ever.”

Why Kipyegon May Not Achieve Her Goal — Pacing

Counterintuitively, pacing may prevent Kipyegon from her best performance this week.

Why?

Well, all mammals run fastest for longest when they express natural variations in their pace. These variations may be almost imperceptible or more dramatic. This permits the most effective metabolic balanced shuttling of lactate for use around the body. It is only the human animal that tries to run at an even pace in the mistaken belief that this is best.

When Kipyegon runs and races there is a natural variation, an individual ebb and flow in her pace. (See PARIS24 1500m Semi-Final and Final graphs). She is capable of unconsciously sensing and monitoring this herself and does not need pacers in front and/or behind (who have different individual rhythms). These pacers may be aerodynamically efficient but destroy the individual and natural “metabolic running” of the athlete being paced.

This is the problem when any support team focuses perhaps too intently on one aspect, to the detriment of other more important aspects — the athlete’s, Kipyegon’s, unique internal metabolism.

**Look at Faith’s natural variable pace in this semifinal.** (PETER JOHN L. THOMPSON)

**Again, the 1500m Final in PARIS24 shows a natural variation in running rhythm.** (PETER JOHN L. THOMPSON)

Bottom Line

We wish her every success in this forthcoming endeavor.

Whether Faith makes it or not this week, a woman will run a legal sub-4 mile some day, and sooner rather than later with the assistance of increasingly propulsive superspikes and sodium bicarbonate or sodium citrate.

Free to view livestream: Breaking4 Live: Faith Kipyegon vs. the 4-Minute Mile